I’m the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I suppose you could say that.
You can find innumerable so-called gambling experts prepared to hand out information of their systems to’beat the bookie’or to produce a second income from gambling, for an amount of course. I won’t do that. I only will give you details about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you yourself to use (or forget) as you see fit.
First thing to say is that the great majority of individuals who engage in gambling will be net losers over time https://foxz24.bet/foxz24/. Here is the very reason you will find so many bookmakers making so much money through the world.
While bookmakers can occasionally take big hits, as an example if your favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they put up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long haul, if not the short term. That is, so long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a specific event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To achieve this they us various statistical models centered on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Needless to say, if sport was 100% predictable, it’d soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot up with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will discover an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, as an example, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two samples of once you would ‘ve got handsome odds on the underdog. And might have won a good wedge.
The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money ensuring they have the best odds that ensure they take into consideration the perceived probability of the big event, and adding that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event features a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability could be 2/1. That is, two to 1 against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, with time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they’d set the odds at, say, 6/4. This way they have built-in the margin that ensures, with time, they will benefit from people betting on this selection. It’s the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers ‘ve got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to have excellent at mathematical modelling and put up a model that takes under consideration as many of the variables that affect the results of an event as possible. The situation with this particular tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing this indicates, it cannot account fully for the minutiae of variables concerning individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is just as much down with their concentration regarding weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events which make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. If you don’t work for one of many clubs, or are married to one of many players or managers, it is most likely the bookmaker setting the odds could have more details than you.
However, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through effort reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to achieve a benefit over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what do you do when you have a benefit in information terms? You follow the value.
Value betting is where you back a selection at odds which are greater than the specific probability of an event occurring. So as an example, in the event that you assess the probability of a specific non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you’ve a price bet on your own hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built-in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you’ve effectively built-in an 8% margin for yourself.
Needless to say Grimsby (as is usually the case) might fluff their lines and don’t win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But if you continue steadily to look for and bet on value bets, with time you could make a profit. If you do not, with time, you will lose. Simple.